Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Packer Draft Options (An Odd View)

Draft season is upon us, and I for one am completely excited.  And my friends over at the Packer Addicts forum have shown me for the second year in a row the "NFL Draft Game" over at  I decided to use it as a bit of a simulator to see different ways that the draft could fall.  As much as I love the different Mock Drafts out there, they don't always see different things that could happen the way that a computer could.  The primary purpose was to see who could be available at the 21st overall pick since this is a Packers web site, and they are the best team in the world.  I did 25 simulations of the first 20 picks on there and that is where the following numbers are based from.

First things first: Who are the Texans taking at #1 overall?  The simulation came up with Bortles (8), Clowney (6), Manziel (5), Bridgewater (4), and Matthews and Barr with 1.  It's clear that the Texans could use a QB, everyone thinks they will take one, it's just whether or not they take one at #1 overall.

There were 9 players that were always off the board before the 21st pick.  They were Clowney, Bortles, Mack, Watkins, Barr, Matthews, Robinson, Evans, and Clinton-Dix.

The top 20 players taken on average are in order:
  1. Clowney
  2. Bortles
  3. Manziel
  4. Bridgewater
  5. Mack
  6. Watkins
  7. Barr
  8. Matthews
  9. Greg Robinson
  10. Evans
  11. Clinton-Dix
  12. Gilbert
  13. Donald
  14. Lewan
  15. Ebron
  16. Dennard
  17. Pryor
  18. Martin
  19. Jernigan
  20. Beckham
Obviously these players don't fit the teams they would be lining up with, but even if this is who is taken, there are still quality players on the board.  I know that CJ Mosley is a linebacker that many players are fond of.  Shazier is definitely still available.  Brandin Cooks and Allen Robinson are available at wideout.  Plus, teams are not smart enough to take the best player available and they will reach for need more often then they should.

These are the other players that were taken at least once before the 21st pick:
  1. Ealy
  2. Cooks
  3. Crichton
  4. Nix
  5. Su'a-Filo
  6. Kouandjio
  7. Yankey
  8. Mason
  9. Allen Robinson
  10. Shazier
  11. Verrett
  12. Lee
  13. Bradford
  14. Moses
  15. Fuller
  16. Ward
  17. Jackson
  18. Richardson
  19. Carr
  20. Van Noy
If you have any other questions about this just let me know I'll be happy to share more information.  Enjoy your day and Go Pack Go!!

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